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How accurate will college professors' forecast model be on Nov 6?
ELECTORAL COLLEGE PREDICTION: Mitt Romney 320 votes; Barack Obama 208
"What is striking about our state-level economic indicator forecast is the expectation that Obama will lose almost all of the states currently considered as swing states, including North Carolina, Virginia, New Hampshire, Colorado, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida," said Kenneth Bickers of CU-Boulder. The prediction model has Romney winning 53.3 percent of the popular vote to Obama's 46.7 percent.
by Joseph Earnest September 11, 2012
Newscast Media DENVER, Colo—Two weeks ago, political science professors Kenneth Bickers of Colorado University-Boulder and Michael Berry of Colorado Univ-Denver released their prediction model stresses economic data from the 50 states and the District of Columbia, including both state and national unemployment figures as well as changes in real per capita income, among other factors.
"Based on our forecasting model, it becomes clear that the president is in electoral trouble," said Bickers, also director of the CU in DC Internship Program.
According to their analysis, President Barack Obama will win 208 votes in the Electoral College, short of the 270 he needs. And though they chiefly focus on the Electoral College, the political scientists predict Romney will win 53.3 percent of the popular vote to Obama's 46.7 percent, when considering only the two major political parties.
"For the last eight presidential elections, this model has correctly predicted the winner," said Berry. Their model correctly predicted all elections since 1980, including two years when independent candidates ran strongly, 1980 and 1992. It also correctly predicted the outcome in 2000, when Al Gore received the most popular vote but George W. Bush won the election.
In 2012, "What is striking about our state-level economic indicator forecast is the expectation that Obama will lose almost all of the states currently considered as swing states, including North Carolina, Virginia, New Hampshire, Colorado, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida," Bickers said.
Based on the model analyzing returns from the prior eight presidential elections, the professors predict that Obama will only win 16 states:
Below are the exact percentages based on the forecast model of Nov. 6
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States Obama will win |
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Percentage |
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*New Mexico (now GOP) 1. Michigan 2. New Jersey 3. Oregon 4. Maine 5. Nevada 6. Massachusetts 7. Washington 8. Illinois 9. Connecticut 10. Delaware 11. Maryland 12. California 13. New York 14. Rhode Island 15. Vermont 16. Hawaii 17. District of Columbia |
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50.93 51.38 51.91 52.00 52.04 52.32 52.39 52.49 55.17 55.56 55.73 55.82 56.52 56.73 57.94 60.69 66.34 86.36 |
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States Obama will lose |
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Percentage |
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Oklahoma Wyoming Utah Idaho Alaska Alabama Arkansas Louisiana Nebraska Kentucky North Dakota Tennessee Kansas West Virginia Mississippi South Dakota Texas South Carolina Georgia Montana Arizona Missouri Indiana North Carolina Ohio Florida Virginia Iowa New Hampshire Minnesota Colorado Pennsylvania Wisconsin |
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27.68 27.72 28.42 30.65 32.57 32.75 33.14 34.24 34.67 35.08 35.34 35.47 36.09 36.30 37.06 37.41 37.78 39.53 41.09 41.46 42.75 43.69 44.17 44.46 45.00 45.75 46.05 46.98 47.20 47.87 48.19 48.24 49.92 |
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Romney 53.3% of popular vote; Obama 46.7% |
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2012 Presidential Forecast Model Research Study by: Prof. Kenneth Bickers of Colorado University-Boulder and Prof. Michael Berry of Colorado Univ-Denver |
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