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Professor at American University predicts Obama win in 2012
by Joseph Ernest July 12, 2010
NewscastMedia -- A college professor at American University is using a 13-Key system to predict the outcome of the 2012 presidential race and says that Obama wins hands down.
Professor Allan Lichtman said, “Nothing that a candidate has said or done during a campaign, when the public discounts everything as political, has changed his prospects at the polls. Debates, advertising, television appearances, news coverage, and campaign strategies—the usual grist for the punditry mills—count for virtually nothing on Election Day.”
Lichtman says that the health care bill counts as a positive for the Democratic Party, leaving the party with only four keys likely turned against it for 2012—two short of the fatal six negative keys. With nine keys that currently favor the incumbent party, Lichtman says President Obama could endure an additional setback, such as the recent political fallout from the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico, and still be reelected.
Below are the 13 Keys Lichtman is using to predict a 2012 Obama win:
- KEY 1 (Party Mandate): After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than it did after the previous midterm elections. (FALSE)
- KEY 2 (Contest): There is no serious contest for the incumbent-party nomination. (TRUE)
- KEY 3 (Incumbency): The incumbent-party candidate is the sitting president. (TRUE)
- KEY 4 (Third party): There is no significant third party or independent campaign. (TRUE)
- KEY 5 (Short-term economy): The economy is not in recession during the election campaign. (TRUE)
- KEY 6 (Long-term economy): Real per-capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms. (FALSE)
- KEY 7 (Policy change): The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy. (TRUE)
- KEY 8 (Social unrest): There is no sustained social unrest during the term. (TRUE)
- KEY 9 (Scandal): The administration is untainted by major scandal. (TRUE)
- KEY 10 (Foreign/military failure): The administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs. (TRUE)
- KEY 11 (Foreign/military success): The administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs. (FALSE)
- KEY 12 (Incumbent charisma): The incumbent-party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. (FALSE)
- KEY 13 (Challenger charisma): The challenging-party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. (TRUE)
According to his book Keys To The White House, Lichtman asserts that “13 Keys” are conditions that favor reelection of the incumbent party candidate. When five or fewer are false, the incumbent party candidate wins. When six or more are false, the other party candidate wins. Add comments>>
Source: (Vocus)
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