Analysis: Uganda Presidential Elections February 18, 2011 – Yoweri Museveni, Kizza Besigye, Norbert Mao Results
2011 Uganda elections
Newscast Media KAMPALA, Uganda — Uganda held its elections on Feb. 18, 2011, with a lot of speculation as to whether it will be a peaceful process. The three leading candidates in the Uganda elections are the incumbent President Yoweri Museveni of the National Resistance Movement (NRM), Dr. Kizza Besigye of the Inter-Party Cooperation (IPC) and Norbert Mao who represents the Democratic Party (DP).
There are indeed other players in the February 18, 2011 elections, however, I will focus on these three candidates (Museveni, Besigye and Mao) who are the front runners in this year’s presidential race. Below is a brief profile of Uganda that will familiarize the readers of this article with the country.
Full name: Republic of Uganda
Location: East Africa – Great Lakes Region
Population: 33.8 million (UN, 2010)
Capital: Kampala
Area: 241,038 sq km (93,072 sq miles)
Major languages: English (official), Luganda, Swahili, various Bantu and Nilotic
languages
Religion(s): Christian 85%, Muslim 12%, other 2%.
Currency: Uganda shilling (Ush)
Membership of international groupings/organizations: East African Community
(EAC), Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA), African Union
(AU), Commonwealth, United Nations (UN) – Non-permanent member of the Security
Council 2009-10, Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) – Uganda
held the chair 2003/5.
Past presidents:
Frederick Mutesa II: October 9, 1963 – March 2, 1966.
Milton Obote: April 15, 1966 – January 25, 1971.
Idi Amin Dada: February 2, 1971 – April 13, 1979.
Yusuf Kironde Lule: April 13, 1979 – June 20, 1979
Godfrey Binaisa: June 20, 1979 – May 12, 1980.
Milton Obote: December 17, 1980 – July 27, 1985.
Yoweri Museveni: January 29, 1986 – Present
This year’s battle for the State House has captured the attention of many local and international observers given what happened in Kenya, Zambia and Cote d’Ivore, when the election results were highly contested because there seemed to be no clear winner. In all three cases candidates of both parties declared themselves winners.
Dead Folk Voting:
Even before election day, reports of 140,000 dead people registered to vote, are troubling and raise concerns about whether this will be a fair election. It is not known to whose party the zombies belong, but Democracy Monitoring Group (DEMGroup) in Uganda has revealed that in addition to the dead voters, over 400,000 foreigners are registered to vote and 5,000 people over the age of 110 are also registered to vote. The entire findings can be read here in The Daily Monitor newspaper.
The incumbent Museveni faces former opponent Kizza Besigye for the third time, and also a newer face representing the Democratic Party, Nobert Mao. Museveni’s advantage is that he has name recognition and access to resources to sustain his campaign. Besigye has the advantage of having developed strong grassroots amongst the largest ethnic group in Uganda called the Baganda. Norbert Mao has the advantage of bringing a fresh outlook to Ugandan politics and strong support in the North.
Yoweri Museveni’s challenges:
Having been in power for 25 years, Museveni will attempt to garner Ugandans’ votes in order to stay in office for another five years. He faces several challenges, not only from his opponents, but also trying to convince voters that he is the right man to lead Uganda in this new decade. Museveni’s toughest challenge lies in the central region – Buganda. The region is predominantly occupied by the Baganda people whose vote is absolutely necessary should any of the three expect to win. However, the tension between the kingdom of Buganda and Museveni’s NRM government has been an impediment to Museveni and the way he is perceived by the Baganda.
Realizing how deep the rift between Buganda and his government had become, Museveni was prompted to write the King (Kabaka) of Buganda Ronald Mutebi a letter that yielded him an audience with His Majesty as reported by state-owned newspaper New Vision.
What Museveni may be inadvertently overlooking, is that the people from Buganda kingdom consider themselves Baganda first, then Ugandans second, whereas non-Baganda consider themselves Ugandans first, then their ethnic tribes second. The reason is because Buganda as a kingdom, was a separate nation state before the British arrived. The British conquered all surrounding kingdoms except Buganda.
After realizing the difficulty they faced in conquering Buganda, the British persuaded the Kabaka (King) to join the rest of the kingdoms and form an amalgamation that would result into the birth of a nation now called Uganda. The Baganda elders together with the king voluntarily accepted the proposal.
If you were in Uganda and asked a non-Muganda: “Tell me about yourself,” the person would say, “My name is so and so, I am a proud Ugandan from such and such a tribe.” However, if you were to meet a Muganda and posed the same question, the person would answer, “My name is so and so, I am a proud Muganda from such and such a clan.” Rather than identify themselves as Ugandans, they will identify themselves as Baganda. It is only when they are outside Uganda that Baganda identify themselves as Ugandans.
The pride of the Baganda people lies in the fact the Buganda kingdom, before it became part of Uganda, was one of only two nations (Liberia and Buganda) in Africa, that was never conquered. Even Ethiopia, was conquered on Oct. 3, 1935, when Italy invaded it. On June 1, 1936, the king of Italy, Vittorio Emannuelle III, was also made emperor of Ethiopia. It wasn’t until 1941, during World War II, that British and South African forces conquered Ethiopia, restoring Haile Selassie back to his Emperorship. So even though King Mutesa I of Buganda voluntarily accepted British protectorate status in 1894, Buganda was never defeated or conquered by colonial armies, as a stand-alone nation state.
As a Psychology graduate, I have determined three necessary ingredients that are required before a voter can cast a vote for a candidate. These ingredients are universal and cross-cultural. The first element that is necessary is rapport. People have to get to know a candidate before determining whether the person is worthy of their vote. It’s the reason candidates spend millions of dollars on ads trying to sell their image or message. The second element is the emotional connection.
Once voters get to know a candidate, they have to be able to connect with that person on an emotional level. They have to know that you feel their pain. This is the most important stage because it builds comfort which translates to trust. No matter how much name recognition one has, if voters distrust a candidate it is very hard for him or her to win over those voters. This is the stage where the goal of the candidate must be to win over the hearts of the people.
The last and final stage that is an after-effect of establishing an emotional connection is loyalty. After voters are familiar with candidate and connect emotionally with that person, they will become loyal supporters of the same. With loyalty people open their checkbooks, offer to volunteer for the candidate by performing tasks like hanging posters, spreading the candidate’s message through word of mouth, launching Web sites or blogs in support of the candidate, defending the candidate and recruiting other voters to vote for the candidate.
It is important for a candidate to get people to vote with their hearts, for when people vote with their hearts, they are literally “sold-out” to their candidates. Those who win over the hearts of the voters, win elections. Museveni’s challenge, particularly in the central Buganda region, is to overcome the emotional disconnect that exists. The Baganda have to feel that he relates to their needs, and is not just pandering to them. Buganda is Museveni’s Achilles’ heel.
Uganda by Region
In the northern region of Uganda, Museveni also faces the prospect of two other candidates in these elections, (Norbert Mao and Dr. Olara Otunnu) who are northerners by descent, tapping into his voting pool, because the northern people who are Luo, may lean toward their fellow tribesmen out of loyalty. As for the western region, IPC candidate Dr. Kizza Besigye who hails from the West like Museveni, has heavily campaigned there as he seeks to claim a chunk of that western pie.
Kizza Besigye’s challenges:
While IPC’s Besigye may not have the resources Museveni has, he too has name recognition in Uganda nationwide. In the West, he will have to work hard to put a big dent in the vote from Ankole region that is more likely to vote for Museveni in these elections. He doesn’t need to dominate in the North because he seems to have stronghold in the Buganda region. Unlike Museveni’s challenge that is an emotional disconnect the Baganda feel, Besigye’s challenge is psychological. Besigye has mentally conditioned himself and his voters to believe that on February 18, there will be foul-play perpetrated by the government as reported by Daily Monitor newspaper in this recently published article.
The danger of being trapped into that state of mind is that the voters in Uganda may not come out in large numbers, believing that Museveni is pre-destined to win the elections, and their vote would simply be a waste of time. The article quotes Besigye as saying: “Dictators cannot be removed by free and fair elections.” If he conditions his voters to think that way, it might eventually become a self-fulfilling prophesy. Besigye’s task is to transcend the psychological impediment that seems to plague him, and instead motivate and boost the moral of his voters to show up in droves on election day.
Norbert Mao’s challenges:
As for Democratic Party’s Norbert Mao, he does have the advantage of being multi-ethnic and an effective communicator. He also is using social networks to mobilize and update his supporters. Being a northerner, Mao is guaranteed to dominate Acholiland in northern Uganda. While Museveni has to deal with the emotional impediment, Besigye with a psychological one, Mao’s challenge has to do with identity.
At the very beginning of the campaign Mao was dogged because of his last name. Many wondered how an African could have a Chinese name. Others who appear to have been Mao’s former schoolmates claimed that Mao had named himself after one of Uganda’s infamous presidents Milton Apollo Obote. Mao realized he had to contain this rumor because if he didn’t, he would instantly lose the support of the Baganda tribe who have never forgiven Obote for ordering a military raid on Buganda’s King Frederick Mutesa II that eventually caused him to seek exile in England in 1966 where he eventually died.
On his Facebook page on February 17, 2010, Mao responded by saying:
“I was amused when I found that the Obote bogeyman was being used against me. Some people have started a whispering campaign that my name MAO stands for Milton Apollo Obote! Yet in reality this is a clan name from the P’Mao clan of Pawel in Acholiland whose great great great grandfather was called Mao. I also have over a dozen other Acholi names given to me by my many relatives. But this is the nature of the game. But we shall not be cowed. Our counter attack will be lethal.”
In a January 16, 2011, article published by the Uganda newspaper the Weekly Observer, Mao is quoted as having said that a certain professor told him that it was not yet time for Uganda to have a president from northern Uganda.
“You can allow them (people from northern Uganda) to guard you, drive you, take your children to school; you even marry them, but you can’t allow them to be presidents,” Mao quotes the professor.
Mao’s challenge is to get voters to accept him regardless of his identity as a northerner. Rather than spend time defining himself or trying to fit in, Mao needs to place more emphasis on continuing to articulate his message, contained in his manifesto that he launched on January 14, 2011.
All Eyes On Uganda:
The international community has already sent its foot soldiers to Uganda to monitor the elections. On February 6, 2011, the Uganda Monitor newspaper reported that US Deputy Secretary James Steinberg and Ass. Secretary Johnnie Carson, were in Uganda to meet with presidential candidates and assess the situation. One might ask why the U.S. and the international community have a strong presence in
Uganda. The reason is because, according to this report by the U.S. Agency For International Development (USAID) Uganda is receiving billions of dollars in foreign aid from the American people.
Part of that money is supposed to be used for Political Competition and Consensus Building as indicated in the report, and these coming Uganda elections fall into that category.
In a January 28, 2011, press release, the European Union said: “The European Union is deploying an Election Observation Mission (EOM) for the general elections in Uganda, scheduled to take place on 18 February 2011. Led by Edward Scicluna, Member of the European Parliament, the 110 EU observers will assess pre-election preparations and campaigning across the country, voting, counting and tabulation of the results on Election Day, as well as the post-election period.”
Baroness Catherine Ashton, EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, said: “The forthcoming elections are important, not only for Uganda but also for the region. They are only the second multi-party elections to have taken place in Uganda since the National Resistance Movement came to power in 1986. The EU values the very good relations it has with Uganda. I strongly hope that the Ugandan people will be able to express themselves freely in these elections. Under the Cotonou Agreement the EU has agreed to reserve for Uganda the substantial sum of Euros 439 million for the years 2008-2013. After the 2006 elections in Uganda, the Commonwealth Secretariat released a negative report saying: “There were some serious irregularities and significant shortcomings and there is scope for substantial improvement.”
Kizza Besigye has said that he will tabulate his own results. Museveni says he will rely on results from the Electoral Commission, while the European Union announced that it will present its initial conclusions in Kampala a few days after the close of polls. The mission will remain in Uganda to prepare a comprehensive report after the elections, including recommendations for improvement to the electoral process, based on a thorough assessment of the entire election process.
It will be interesting to see whose results the Ugandan voters consider legitimate after February 18.
http://www.newscastmedia.com/uganda-presidential-elections-2011.html
The problems of uganda rely solely on leaders who think of themselves than the country. On next week’s elections some people on opposition are just targetting Museveni and describe him as the only rock in their way to gain what they want. President Museveni is gonna win these elections simply because people see him as only man with focus,because his way in handling issues that affect them.
President Museveni has never been a problem but some opportunist with no clear agenda are the more that cause problems,where they call demostration of destroying people’s property,stealing to mention but a few.
we are just waiting only the day,go out and pour votes for candidate Museveni.
Bravo Bravo Mzee kikofira am going to vote Kaguta ang i will tick your cap along side with yellow bus.
This time 78 percent per polling in uganda,but on our polling station you gonna get 90 percent.
No wonder people still have trust in you.
I don’t agree with Nana that Mzee will get 78%. where will he get that 78%?the factis that President Besigye has gained popularity than last years. consider all the rallies both Mzee and Dr. Besigye. Besigye has many people than Mzee. example western uganda is where museni used to get many votes but now he is going to have 30% Besigye 65% whithout Central, Eastern and Northern . Besigye is going to win with 72% Mzee with 60%. let us wait the day to vote. Besigye woye.
Nana are you serious? How old are you? To think that museveni deserves to win once again. Uganda will never develope or get ahead if museveni is still in power. I was born during the war btn him and Obote, 25 years, he has been in power and nothing to show for it apart from the northern war which I am very grateful that’s over. I think ugandans should rise up and speak up. I bet u 100 dollars that Museveni bribes or cheats his way back to being the president. Which is very sad, thank God am not home because I would do something about it. It takes just one person to stand up and view their thoughts. I would go on and on but I gotta go to work
I think Besigye is bound to win. I mean the guy has not given up. It shows how serious and important this means to him. Some might be scared of not knowing what his intensions are but the only way we can find out is by giving him a chance. Change might be good for Uganda. Lord knows we need it.
Voting for Museveni again this time around would tantamount to voting for a continuation of the status quo; pilaging of state resources with his cronies and next of kin, shelving of reports that indite those implicated in corruption, high unemployment, poor health service deleivery, name it. I was once an ardent supporter of the NRM and Museveni but these vices have since repulsed me and therefore feel that any sane Ugandan who loves Uganda should vote for Besigye if we are to salvage our country. Do not forget that already all deals surrounding our recently discovered resource; oil are so fussy with only Museveni in the know. If we are to benefit from oil, i dont trust museveni and cronies to manage it. I’d rather that Besigye or Mao is given an opportunity to do so. Oil is only a blessing if the leadership is nationalistic in outlook and not egoistic
As for the Nanas of this world, i don’t blame them because i do not see how you bite the hand from which you eat. They are so engrossed with SELF and dont mind what happens to the rest of the Ugandans. However, its important to note that even the greatest of emperors in hitory fell. If i were Nana, i would prepare myself for any eventuality to avoid massive shock let alone cardiac arrest that might follow. For once break the norm and condemn your fellow wizard
People like Nana are the one who have prevalaged from Museveni’s loot and who are willing to sack dry the poor people of Uganda. It is amazing that Museveni is like a tick who will sack the cow until its dead. We need a new blood, you can never be the best all the time. Look at the former president of Egypt he waited too long and things cought up with him I am afraid the same thing is going to happen to your Museveni if not worse.
I know these Nanas have done terrible things to the people of Uganda and they are afraid if they let go they will end up in prisons. Well, these Nanas will have to account for all the loot they have accumulated for all these years. All these big houses and expensive cars they have bought from the money they continue to steal. Remember nothing lasts for ever the time will came, it took Mubarack 30 years, Museveni is not so far away.
Interesting. After over 25years in power Uganda doesn’t have access to most utilities like water yet this is a country that can afford military support to other nations.Who knows not that Ugandans have only learnt how to handle guns;fighters,thieves…etc Is that what life should be? Can you imagine there are people who are representative of blood thirst? That’s what we see in some of these presidential campaigners. Uganda is a nation that was constricted by wickedness.The out going president may have been good and that didn’t mean he was to be president forever:but does he have the judgement?But be of good cheer,knowing that as wood is set for the fire,this people is meant for God’s destruction.And as sure as day and night is their destruction sure.
Uganda, the pearl of Africa! Proud am to spake about her! But why all the chucks of hatred and disrespect in our country? True, persons differ in taste. Truth remains. Uganda’s gone through different epochs. Many have reviled her. Few love her. No one has her at heart as i may say. Things turn around always. But why? Evil mankind! Futility of man! Deprivity at work in all human beings! Come back to your sense man. see the truth besides you. Follow not your own ways but the truth. Thankfully, incubent’s done it’s part. All appreciate the little, then ask for what you think aright! You differ from, our work will certainly differ never the same. Complain not! Yello up! Pity to us think aless. Pits of doom await us! Long live, pearl of Africca-Uganda! Go vote, Ugandans, avoid strife and wisely cast it, your vote counts a lot! For God and my country
Yes ineed Uganda is the pearl of Africa we dont want fighting just let our president rule the our country no one i said no one can rule aside from Hon. Yoweri.K.Museveni he brought us peace and freedom dats all dat matters even those dat want 2 come into power want 2 steal so let no one talk abt it u should instead appreciate him for the peace,love freedom he has given us we dont want want any other ruler but him so i will always say long live Mr. Musevene Long live and rule its ur country and we love uuuuuuuuuuuu and never shall we stop we the baganda say basima ogenze but from the time i was born i have always loved my president and always will so with prayers i know we will WIN we have to we dont want change
Dear Ugandans,we Rwandans and other Africans are watching this beautiful country closely, we hope that you can handle your issues carefully. Some of us lived in Uganda as refugees and we still love this country. You all remember the wars of 60s, 79 and 81-85? are again ready for this? we request you to give great lakes region peace otherwise we may again be engulfed into wars. When Interahamwe killed people and went to Ex-Zaire, the war broke out and you know what LRA is doing in Sudan, DRC CAR, please, this is enough, let us first deal with this. Nanas, Patrick and Mukisas should advise each other
Why all this hatred? I dodn’t want to judge anyone but remember that in the war/violence everyone looses. In Rwanda, everyone lost at least a family member in 1994, can you please avoid this? thank you for taking this advice. Just vote wisely and ignore violence/blood shed.
God bless you all and more importantly, Uganda, EAc and Africa in General
i think Ugandans should vote must vote wisely because for the least 25 years at least every year we were receiving one or two social services needed for our people and we know that Uganda is still a developing country an we are still heading for better development so we need peace the election should be free there must be no blame game om Mr. Museveni because this big man of our is really trying to develop Uganda, east Africa, and Africa as as whole lets vote him back.
Yes, who said we don’t need peace? But up to now some people are still blind folded. This is not a one man’s country. What can you say about a leader who sets terms limits and then after realising that his time is over, he decides to change and do away with them for good? Who can ever be happy having peace when in abject poverty? What is the meaning of democracy? Like one author who wrote the novel “Nothing lasts forever”, dictators like Hitler, Mobutu, Idi Amin, Mubarak have fallen and i know also Museveni’s time is not far. We shall continue to strive for our rights for the good of this country. Let us all vote for a change. For God and my country.
Ugandans must wake up and vote out dictator museveni. how can a candidate say he is going nowhere until he implements his policies. what was he doing in the last 25 years while he was in power.
why are ugandans being taken for a ride by this mzee. is it because he provided the AU with a peacekeeping force in Somalia to fight Al Shabaab a group Americans refer to as terrorists.
America supports dictators who are serving their interests. however, the wind of change and democracy is sweeping through africa and the middle east. BAHRAIN, IRAN, SYRIA, SAUDI ARABIA, YEMEN, ERITREA, ETHIOPIA, SUDAN, LIBYA,LIBYA, ALGERIA, ZIMBABWE, SOMALIA, CAMEROON, GABON, SENEGAL, IVORY COAST BURKINA FASO, ANGOLA,BURMA, N. KOREA, PAKISTAN, AFGHANISTAN, UGANDA ETC. change is coming today or tommorow. uganda is the pearl of africa and with the oil that Museveni is eyeing, UG as we call it in Kenya will soon become one of the rich countries around. But we are aware that the oil can make you rich or bring poverty through civil wars and other conflicts as being witnessed in Nigeria.
the suitable candidate to lead Uganda in the next five years should win.let us do away with electing leaders basing on tribalism,religion or nepotism.the evil of tribalism will follow you when ever you go.For example If you decline to elect Mao because he is from the north or Nilotic the same way you will find a difference among the bantu speaking candidates{museveni besigye, Kamya,the same evil will lead you to see a difference in candidates of the same tribe [eg among the baganda Bannabuddu}”sironda bannabuddu,bakooki’basese” etc i am from kyadondo , this evil of segregation will keep on hunting you.
lets choose leaders will help our people to overcome poverty,ignorance, corruption poor health and nepotism regardless their ethnic backgroung . God save us ugandans in 2011.
God bless all ugandans..lets us support each other..no one can devop our country…only we…brick by brick we shall be there….
For us we prayed to God to give us aleader who will lead us in love, Besigye has such a heart that make every one tremble whenever he opens his mouth to talk and that puts thousands of people off him because it is writen that a man say what is on his heart, so we think that as he speaks so he is!.
Imagine Kiiza Besigye saying that if he looses he will not go to court! Does this imply that he does not respect the law? or does he intend to go to the bush to rejuvinate his failed PRA rebel organisation?
He has now lost for the third time and fellow Ugandan lets wait for him and see what he intends to do.
With only 59% of registered voters turning up for the poll, people shouldn’t be surprised at the outcome. Museveni has come out 68.3% of the vote. The number of Ugandans disillusioned with the state of the electoral process is gigantic and Besigye has turned out a prophet. This is his worst performance yet. Most of the people who would have voted for him didn’t turn up or if they did, were told their names weren’t on the register.
fuck all supports of besigye viva musav and nrm
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